Q1 2026: Group sales −11%, Recycling +89% - soft top, intact thesis

The constructive read is in the mix. Recycling grew 89% y-o-y and is the single largest growth driver, gross margin held at 48% despite lower volumes, and the US business has been raised to an 11 MSEK (~1.2 MUSD) annualised run-rate that begins ramping in Q2. Performance Masterbatch was essentially flat (−1%) while Performance Chemicals fell −25% on wait-and-see behaviour in the lightweight segment - a timing issue rather than lost share.

The balance sheet supports the patience the thesis requires. Cash stood at 37.9 MSEK with an additional 25.0 MSEK in unused overdraft, giving 62.9 MSEK (~6.9 MUSD) of available liquidity at a 78% equity ratio. The 51.8 MSEK (~5.7 MUSD) rights issue is fully guaranteed before issue costs, removing near-term funding risk.

What keeps the thesis intact is structural: virgin plastic prices are up 40-80%, which reframes recycled content from an ESG preference to an economic necessity. With 27 technically approved Recycling projects in the pipeline, the second North American distributor onboarding on top of Palmer Holland, and management explicitly guiding Q2 stronger than Q1, the setup for a doubled Recycling year remains in place.

The risks are mainly cyclical: a prolonged de-stocking cycle in Lightweight and High Temperature, FX exposure on the scaling US revenue base, customer concentration while Recycling broadens out, and continued negative EBITDA if volumes do not recover as guided. The catalysts to watch into the next print are the US ramp confirming the 11 MSEK run-rate, Recycling sustaining double-digit y-o-y growth, the first sign of Performance Chemicals stabilising, conversion of the 27 approved Recycling projects into commercial revenue, and any named long-term contracts in High Temperature.