Commercial · Scenario
Your scenario, not a forecast
Three numbers you choose, multiplied: how many projects, what share of them reach recurring sales, and what each is worth a year. Every field starts empty, because a default would be an assumption you did not make. The result is hypothetical annual revenue, and nothing on this page turns it into a share price.
Scenario
Start from a reported count (optional)
Nexam reports how many Recycling projects are at each stage. You can put one of those counts into the projects field. A project is not a customer and not an order: one customer can have several projects, a project can stop at any stage, and the company does not say how much any of them would buy.
The commercial count is not offered: those projects already sell, and what they sell is in the reported sales.
What the result leaves out
- Timing. The result is a year at full run rate; it says nothing about which year, or how long the projects take to get there.
- Overlap. Several projects can be one customer, and the calculation counts each as its own.
- Churn. Customers stop buying, reformulate or switch supplier; the result assumes none do.
- Capacity. Whether Nexam could make that much is not part of the sum.
- Product mix. Projects differ in size and product; one revenue figure for all of them is a simplification.
- Margins and costs. The result is revenue, not profit, and says nothing about what it costs to earn.
- Execution. Qualification, competition, raw-material supply and customers' own markets can all stop a project the sum counts.
No share price, valuation, multiple or target is derived from the result here, and none should be. This is a way to see what a set of assumptions implies, not a view on what the shares are worth.